New York 18: Move to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican. A few weeks ago, even many Republicans worried that freshman GOP Rep. Nan Hayworth was increasingly in trouble. But she’s had effective, memorable ads in a market that’s hard to communicate in because of its proximity to New York City, and a new Siena poll shows the Republican leading by seven points. Both public and private polls are showing the same movement here, and time is running out for Sean Patrick Maloney (D).